NCAA tournament cheat sheet: Smart picks, upset alerts, and key strategies for March madness success

Filling out your NCAA bracket doesn’t require expert knowledge. With a few smart picks and strategies, you could outsmart your competition and navigate the madness of March.

No expertise needed - smart picks and strategies can help you navigate the unpredictability of March Madness. (Bloomberg)

Filling out your NCAA tournament bracket doesn't require expert knowledge of the sport. March Madness is unpredictable, and success doesn't always correlate with understanding the game. In fact, no one has ever completed a perfect bracket, and only one person has ever picked every game correctly through the Sweet 16.

Top-ranked teams often face upsets from lower-seeded schools that perform unexpectedly well, especially early in the tournament. However, if you're aiming to outshine your office competition, there are a few strategies worth considering.

Stick with the Top Seeds

Historically, top seeds have a strong track record in the NCAA tournament. Since 1985, 34 out of 39 tournament winners were seeded 1, 2, or 3, with 25 being No. 1 seeds. This year, Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida hold the top spots in their respective regions, making them safe bets to progress.

Consider Early Upsets

While top seeds are often safe picks, upsets are part of the madness. Historically, the No. 12 seeds beat the No. 5 seeds 35 percent of the time in the first round, making it a strategic upset to choose. UC San Diego is a popular pick to defeat Michigan in Denver. Additionally, No. 15 seeds have pulled off upsets against No. 2 seeds 11 times since 1985.

Keep an Eye on Injuries

Injuries can shift the balance for any team. Duke, for example, lost key players during the ACC Tournament, which could affect their performance. It's worth checking the status of players like Cooper Flagg before making your pick.

Don't Overlook the Three-Pointer

Three-point shooting is more common than ever, with 290 teams averaging 20 or more attempts per game this season. This trend could lead to surprises, as lower-seeded teams are capable of sudden scoring bursts.

The First Four Games

While automatic inclusion of First Four winners is common, picking at least one winner from these games in the first round is a smart strategy, as it has happened every year since 2011 except for 2019.

As the tournament kicks off Thursday, remember that anything can happen. Pick your bracket however feels right - it's March Madness after all.