Decaying sunspot may spark M-class solar flares, NOAA satellites reveal; Solar storm brewing?

The last ten days have been quite peaceful for the Earth. Solar activity has been at a minimum despite two active sunspots staring down at our planet. One of them, AR3315, is as large as 5 times the size of the Earth and was feared to explode producing an X-class solar flare. However, it did not and now the latest predictions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have revealed that much of the unstable magnetic field has decayed, and chances of an X-class flare no longer exist. However, there is still a 40 percent chance for an M-class flare eruption. Will it bring a powerful solar storm? Let us take a look.

As per a report by SpaceWeather.com, “Dangerous sunspot AR3315 became less dangerous today. Its magnetic field has decayed, losing the delta configuration that gave it potential energy for X-class solar flares. Lesser M-class flares are still possible, though, with NOAA estimating a 40%-chance of M-flares”.

Solar storm threat reduced but not removed

The threat of a solar storm has definitely reduced but as long as the sunspot glares in the Earth’s view, it cannot be considered gone entirely. In case an M-class solar flare does erupt, it can still throw coronal mass ejection (CME) clouds which can later cause a geomagnetic storm.

While these storms are generally not as intense as a G5-class geomagnetic storm, they can still reach G1 to G3 class. Such solar storms can damage smaller satellites, cause communication blackouts, disrupt mobile networks and internet connectivity and in rare cases can also cause power grid failures.

However, whether such a storm can be caused by a flare eruption today or tomorrow is something that needs to be seen.

NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite’s role in solar storm monitoring

NOAA monitors solar storms and Sun’s behavior using its DSCOVR satellite which became operational in 2016. The recovered data is then run through the Space Weather Prediction Center and the final analysis is prepared. The different measurements are done on temperature, speed, density, degree of orientation, and frequency of the solar particles.