Big question over GTA 6 release! Dark cloud looms over Take-Two; know what happened

Take-Two's disappointing revenue forecast suggests a potential GTA 6 release delay, amid lower consumer spending and stiff industry competition.

Take-Two's revenue forecast disappoints, casting doubt on GTA 6's release by March 2025, amid weak demand and competition. (Rockstar Games)

Take-Two Interactive Software's latest financial forecast has cast doubt on the timeline of GTA 6 release, indicating a potential delay beyond March 2025. The company's projections for fourth-quarter bookings fell below market expectations, prompting a 10 percent drop in its shares following the announcement. This may well hurt GTA 6 launch unless the company thinks that the game will have an instant positive impact.

This disappointing outlook stems from various factors, including lower consumer spending and intense competition within the gaming industry, notably from giants like Electronic Arts and Microsoft-owned Activision Blizzard. Take-Two's forecast for fourth-quarter bookings ranged from $1.27 billion to $1.32 billion, significantly lower than analysts' expectations of $1.51 billion, according to data from LSEG.

Analysis of Third-Quarter Performance

Additionally, the company revised its annual estimates downwards, now projecting full-year bookings in the range of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion, compared to its earlier forecast of $5.45 billion to $5.55 billion. While some analysts attribute this adjustment to the delay of a particular game, others suggest it reflects broader challenges within the industry.

Wedbush securities analyst Michael Pachter noted, "The forecast cut is almost entirely attributable to the shift of a game out of the fiscal year, so no real impact on the company's long-term prospects." However, investors had hoped for a more optimistic outlook, particularly regarding the highly anticipated GTA 6, which was expected to provide a significant boost to Take-Two's revenue.

"The reduction in outlook tells you it's (GTA 6) not coming next fiscal year," Pachter added, further dampening expectations for the game's imminent release.

Performance in the Third Quarter

In the third quarter, Take-Two's net bookings experienced a 3 percent decline to $1.34 billion, although this was in line with analysts' estimates. While titles like GTA Online and the Red Dead Redemption series performed well, weaknesses in mobile advertising and NBA 2K sales offset some of these gains, according to Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick.

Despite these challenges, the company remains focused on delivering quality gaming experiences.

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